3/08/2005
One China, or Not
We've all seen the new announcements by China about Taiwan. Their "One China" policy is famous, and has been since 1949. And they have for, 56 years claimed they will use force to end the secession of this rebel province. Yet, for all this time they have done little but pen missives and indulge in gratuitous saber rattling. All well and good for putting up a show, but I don't think they've convinced anyone outside their borders, expect maybe Taiwan, that they will use force. Yes, the US has taken great pains to see that should the mainlanders decide to make good on their threats that it is costly at best. Yes Taiwan is probably among the most scrutinized pieces of real estate not currently in an active shooting war with an outside party. But, I suspect the percentage of people who expect a military conflict over Taiwan in the next decade or so are roughly equal to those who believe in the Flat Earth.
So why this most recent entry in the pissing contest that is seemingly between the US (and Japan, and large portions of the west, and oh yeah, Taiwan), and China? The same driving reason it has always been. Domestic consumption. When the Communists took over and fully displaced their rivals in '49 they had to have some way of getting everyone if not on the same page, then at least reading from the same book. Having so familiar a bogeyman just beyond a ribbon of water served them well. Over more recent years they've added the specter of American corruption to the purity of life they've instructed their people that they have. Taiwan, serves as an adroit stalking horse for the leadership of China, and as long as they have wit to do no more than make urgent, and seeming earnest rumbling at and about the evils without their borders, it can almost certainly continue to do so for years to come.
So why this most recent entry in the pissing contest that is seemingly between the US (and Japan, and large portions of the west, and oh yeah, Taiwan), and China? The same driving reason it has always been. Domestic consumption. When the Communists took over and fully displaced their rivals in '49 they had to have some way of getting everyone if not on the same page, then at least reading from the same book. Having so familiar a bogeyman just beyond a ribbon of water served them well. Over more recent years they've added the specter of American corruption to the purity of life they've instructed their people that they have. Taiwan, serves as an adroit stalking horse for the leadership of China, and as long as they have wit to do no more than make urgent, and seeming earnest rumbling at and about the evils without their borders, it can almost certainly continue to do so for years to come.
