Homespun Bloggers question

Some of you recall I joined the Homespun Bloggers recently; they do a weekly Symposium with each participant posting their reply on their own blog. This weeks question is below.

What are my predictions for the Iraqi elections?

Lots of violence. I expect there to be five hundred or more civilian and police casualties. There will probably be at least one polling station attacked, and possibly either successive waves of attacks or several simultaneous attacks on polling stations. I would expect that the lines outside will see demonstrators against the election and other efforts to intimidate voters. The election will pick be won by one of the numerous Baatthists. There will be calls of fraud, but thanks to a US stamp of approval the winner will eventually have the luxury of letting Iraq slide into a Russian like funk where more and more rights are repealed.


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